ERCOT issued an Operational Condition Notice (“OCN”) for the predicted cold weather event for the ERCOT Region for Thursday, January 20, 2022, through Friday January 21, 2022. This is a first step to trying to ensure enough electricity is available to meet demand in potential bad weather. ERCOT leadership has said they are confident the grid will operate without any disturbances, and they do not foresee any issues being caused by the colder weather.
Weather forecast: A strong cold front is expected to arrive in Southeast Texas Wednesday night, with sleet or ice possible Thursday night. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 30s for inland areas and low 40s for Houston and the Gulf Coast region. Temperatures will warm into the 40s on Friday, with colder weather moving in Friday night/Saturday morning. A light (dry) freeze is possible during this time for the Houston metro area. On Saturday, temperatures are expected to increase to mid-50s and back down to 40 degrees on Saturday evening. Below is a comparison of temperatures during Winter Storm Uri and the forecast for Thursday through Sunday:
Winter Storm Uri | This Week | |||||||||
Houston | Dallas | San Antonio | Midland | Houston | Dallas | San Antonio | Midland | |||
2/15/2021 | 16°F | 7°F | 9°F | -2°F | 1/20/2022 | 33°F | 23°F | 28°F | 17°F | |
2/16/2021 | 13°F | 3°F | 13°F | 10°F | 1/21/2022 | 33°F | 24°F | 29°F | 24°F | |
2/17/2021 | 32°F | 20°F | 24°F | 14°F | 1/22/2022 | 41°F | 31°F | 38°F | 26°F |
Also included is a comparison of ERCOT’s current load forecast for the next three days compared to February 15th – 17th, 2021 (Winter Storm Uri):
Impact on January Intramonth Prices: Indicative quotes on ERCOT 1/20 through 1/31 hedges to be at 1-1.25x premium of Month-To-Date LMP prices (see below):
ERCOT Zone | Real Time LMP ($/MWh) | Day-Ahead LMP ($/MWH) |
Houston Zone | $29.44 | $32.27 |
North Zone | $29.62 | $31.97 |
South Zone | $27.57 | $30.43 |
West Zone | $22.85 | $25.22 |